Trump's Forever War?

Nicolas Maduro is a bad man. Let’s just get that out of the way. The ruination of Venezuela’s economy and civil society, is near fruition, thanks to Maduro. Venezuela, under Maduro, and Hugo Chavez before him, is a security concern for the United States. Maduro’s government aligned their interests with Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, Cuba, Syria (under Assad), etcetera; basically any country hostile to the United States (at least before the Trump administration started alienating our traditional allies).

What Maduro—or any one else in Venezuela—has not done is steal American oil or land, which happens to be one of several casus belli Donald Trump offers for attacking Venezuela and imprisoning Maduro and his wife.

Trump cites other reasons for attacking Venezuela; drugs, gangs, “liberating” the Venezuelan people, but oil is the one that really seems to get his goat. So let’s look at that claim.

It is bullshit. Venezuela’s oil reserves naturally occur in geological formations that have been part of Venezuela’s territory since the country was founded as an independent Republic in 1830. International law is clear that natural resources within a country’s borders belong to that country, regardless of who discovers, develops, or extracts them.

American and foreign oil companies¹ have operated in Venezuela, by agreement with that government, since the 1920s. In keeping with international law (see above) they are extracting Venezuelan oil, not American oil. When Venezuela nationalized their oil industry in 1976, taking control of operations that had been run by foreign companies, it did affect American business interests. However, Venezuela was exercising a sovereign right that many countries—including the United States—have exercised with their natural resources.

Notably, the Ford Administration—then in power— accepted the situation. By the mid-1970s, nationalizing oil resources had become common (OPEC countries, Mexico earlier, and others had nationalized their domestic industries), and the United States recognized the trend was essentially irreversible. Venezuela agreed to compensate the foreign oil companies for their assets, which helped ease any tensions. Importantly, Venezuela didn’t expel American companies. US firms continued to operate in Venezuela through service contracts and technical agreements with the new state company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).

Now, Donald Trump is proposing that since American companies once operated in Venezuela, or because Venezuelan oil could benefit America (or Trump), that their oil is—or ought to be—somehow “ours.”

Legally, historically, he hasn’t a leg to stand on.

What about the drugs? Trump has accused Maduro of running drugs into the United States via illegal immigrants and the Tren de Aragua criminal gang. He often cites the threat from Fentanyl in his speeches and social media posts. It’s the primary, or sole, justification for attacking boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific and killing their crews. In fact, Venezuela has little or no involvement in the fentanyl trade. Venezuela is a transit route for cocaine from Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, although much of the cocaine trafficked through Venezuela is destined for Europe.

I don’t think anyone would be surprised if it turned out Nicolas Maduro was getting a taste of the profits from drug runners. Interestingly, another head of state who was convicted in U.S. courts of taking kickbacks from drug traffickers, former Honduran President, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was recently pardoned by Donald Trump.

It has been suggested that Maduro is similarly negotiating a pardon, and an off-ramp from the mess he leaves behind in Venezuela. For 250 years the idea that an American President would establish a market for pardons would be rejected out of hand. That such a suggestion is given any credence is a stain on our history.

What happens next? Most readers will remember the so-called Pottery Barn Rule given voice by Colin Powell, “You break it, you buy it.” Venezuela may have been broken before last night, but we haven’t—in the short term—helped. Nor have we the best track record in this area. The allure of technical solutions, “over-the-horizon” engagements, or war sans gore, is powerful and self defeating. Venezuelans are proud people and have a proud history. Some, many, will thank us for ousting Maduro. They won’t thank us for claiming their oil industry or Trump attempting to cash in on their misfortune. They’ll fight. And our soldiers will be in the cross-hairs of a “forever war.”

I return to T. R. Fehrenbach’s words from his magisterial study of the Korean War:

…you may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men in the mud.

Or “liberate” people, or steal their oil…

1. Standard Oil of New Jersey (later Exxon), Gulf, Texaco, Socony-Vacuum (later Mobil), and Sinclair, along with Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum.