Russia is The Wrong Partner,

And the wrong model for the United States

Is Russia a good partner for the United States going forward? Are they a good model for us?

As the new administration rejects long-time partners and allies, including our neighbor Canada, let’s look at the role-model it seems to prefer, Russia.

Russia, the geographic core of the former Soviet Union, like the United States geographically spans a vast territory, from Saint Petersburg on the the Baltic Sea to Vladivostok on the Pacific Ocean. Its population, at about 141 million, is large but less than half of that of the United States. Like the United States, it is ethnically diverse. According to a 2010 estimate, the population is 77% ethnic Russian, 3.7% Tatar, 1.4% Ukrainian and the remainder comprising varied smaller ethnic populations. After 70 years of anti-religious Communism, Russia’s population, according to a 2006 estimate, was 15-20% Russian Orthodox, 10-15% Muslim, and 2% other Christian denominations. The Russian Orthodox Church is the official state religion and is directly tied in with the Russian Government. So, most of Russia’s similarities to the United States are superficial.

Economically, Russia went from a command economy under the Soviet system to state capitalism after the USSR collapsed. State capitalism, in Russia’s case, sometimes called crony capitalism, can be seen as a small number of people connected to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, owning or controlling most of the country’s wealth. According to World Economics, Russia’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 was estimated at $1.582 trillion and its Real GDP per capita was $10,800.¹ The reality is that after the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, most of Russia's wealth was in the hands of a small number of oligarchs who succeeded in buying up State-owned properties at give-away prices. In the years since, former members of the intelligence and security services, the KGB and GRU (military intelligence) who were close to Putin, were able to displace the earlier oligarchs and now most of the country’s wealth rests in their hands and they are beholden to Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Federation has been led by President Putin from 2000 to 2008 and then from 2012 to the present. At the time Russia’s Constitution required the President to step down after two terms, but did not bar a non-sequential term after that. In fact, during the gap, Putin remained the de facto leader of Russia while his “successor,” Dmitry Medvedev fronted for him. When he returned to the Presidency in 2012, Putin quickly amended the Constitution so he could remain in office. There is no indication that Putin plans to leave office and there is no designated successor. In the 25 years Putin has been the dictator of Russia he has jailed his critics, including reporters, or had them assassinated. He shut down any civic organizations that he considered a potential challenge to his power, and cemented his hold on the government and country. Putin used the state-sponsored Wagner Group mercenaries to support repressive regimes, carrying out atrocities in Africa and elsewhere. Wagner group mercenaries featured prominently in the opening year of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Putin directly supported Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in his brutal suppression of opposition elements in that country, including using chemical weapons and indiscriminate bombing campaigns. Upon Assad’s recent overthrow, Putin granted the fellow dictator asylum in Russia. More pertinently, Putin is conducting a relentless campaign to undermine the West, especially the United States, which he blames for the break-up of the Soviet Union, and which. he has called “the greatest tragedy of the 20^th century;” as opposed to the horrendous loss of Russian lives in WWI, WWII, or Stalin’s purges and genocide via famine.

What is life like today for the average Russian? Despite what Tucker Carlson showed on television during his 2024 visit to Moscow, highlighting the subways (built during Stalin’s brutal reign) and a supermarket where the customers can put a ruble into the shopping cart as a deposit to reduce the number of carts stolen, life is far different outside the capital. The average Russian’s housing is substandard, foodstuffs are difficult to obtain unless you grow vegetables in your own garden, and it can take years to afford and be able to purchase basic household appliances or a car. Moscow and Saint Petersburg are the showcases, the rest of the country is not well off. Since Russia’s renewed attack on Ukraine in 2022, it has shifted much of its government’s outlays to support the war, further placing the burden on its citizens.

Russia spends 5 percent of GDP on the military (2023 estimate) and may be currently spending far more. In 2024, according to the CIA Fact Book, its armed forces had approximately 1.3 million personnel plus another 350,000 Federal National Guard Troops, using a compulsory service system. In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the force it maintained in peacetime was inadequate to support the assault on its neighbor. Russia had to offer hardened criminals pardons for joining the military, which may account, in part, for many of the atrocities committed by Russian troops in Ukraine. The military has used its soldiers as cannon fodder in the war, suffering huge losses. In order to squelch any public outcry, for example from the mothers of killed soldiers, the Putin government has made it a crime to call the so-called “special operation” a “war” and is jailing those who oppose aggression against Ukraine. Russia has even had to reach out to Iran for drones and to North Korea for ammunition and military materiel and most recently North Korean troops to help in its war against Ukraine.

Financially, Russia has little or nothing to offer the United States other than oil and minerals, but even with that, history has shown that the level of corruption, inefficiency and government meddling has scared away western investors. Russian manufactured goods are generally inferior in quality to those produced in other industrialized countries. Moreover, Russia’s natural resources are, for the most part, available from other countries that are more compatible with American standards and values.

How does it advantage the United States to align itself with Russia at the cost of alienating its long-time partners in Europe as well as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and others with whom we have enjoyed good economic and defense relations? This author sees no benefit to the United States whatsoever. Russia’s economy is weak and Western Europe has largely weaned itself off of Russian oil and natural gas. Conducting business in Russia is risky in that, without paying bribes, it is hard to get anything done and unless you have the backing of one of the oligarchs, and they are all under Putin’s thumb. Putin is now in his seventies and not immortal, so when he passes away without a clear successor, it will probably result in power struggles and instability worse than any in the heyday of the USSR.

So, why is the current administration bending over backwards to cozy up to Russia and take aggressive stances against our traditional allies and trading partners? While theories abound, there is little logic to explain the shift toward Russia. There is no evidence that America will benefit from partnering with Russia, particularly at the expense of relations with traditional allies and friends. Nor is there evidence to show that emulating Russia’s government system or crony-capitalist economy would be a good model for America.

Let’s make it clear to the majority party in Congress that we need to reengage with our traditional friends and distance ourselves from an unstable and aggressive country led by a dictator who has been justifiably accused of war crimes.

1. Real GDP is expressed in Constant Dollars (2015). Russia’s GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is assessed at $8.314 trillion and $14,390 per capita in PPP. World Economic Outlook, April 2024