Fun With AI, Wars, and The Future

Exploring Europe's 18th and 19th century wars, the development of the USA, and the work of Carl von Clausewitz

After reading an essay of on whether ChatGPT is overrated, underrated, dangerous, or whatever, I thought I’d have a chat (pun intended) with it on an area of history I find understudied in our schools, which had enormous impact on our history. The answers are interesting and historically sound. They don’t necessarily indicate that Chat GPT is “conscious” but I must say that they show more sophistication and complexity than any single text I’ve read. They do reflect an aggregated knowledge and understanding of many sources, which is, I suppose, what one expects of a Large Language Model that has been fed trillions of bits of information. Is it “intelligence” or “consciousness?” I don’t know as I don’t really know of an agreed definition of those terms. Moreover, isn’t that what our intelligence really boils down to? An aggregated knowledge and understanding of many sources, having been fed billions or trillions of bits of information?

Discussion follows:

Query: I'd like to discuss the causes of the Seven Years War.

The Seven Years' War (1756-1763) is often considered the first global conflict, as it involved most of the great powers of the time and spanned multiple continents. Its causes are complex and multi-faceted, but they can be broadly categorized into several key areas:

1. Colonial Rivalries: The war was largely driven by competition between Britain and France for colonial dominance, particularly in North America and India. The struggle for control of lucrative trade routes and territories fueled tensions, particularly in the Ohio River Valley, where both nations sought to expand their influence.

2. Territorial Disputes: In North America, the expansion of British colonists into the Ohio Valley brought them into conflict with French interests and Native American tribes. In Europe, territorial ambitions and longstanding rivalries, especially between Austria and Prussia, also contributed to the conflict.

3. European Alliances: The intricate system of alliances in Europe played a significant role. Britain and Prussia formed a coalition against France, Austria, and Russia. The shifting alliances and diplomatic agreements created an environment ripe for conflict, as nations sought to protect their interests and expand their power.

4. The War of the Austrian Succession: The Seven Years' War can be seen as a continuation of the War of the Austrian Succession (1740-1748), which had already set the stage for conflict in Europe. The unresolved issues and rivalries from that war carried over into the Seven Years' War.

5. Economic Factors: Economic interests also drove the conflict. The British and French were vying for control of trade routes and markets, particularly in the Caribbean and India. Economic competition intensified the desire for territorial expansion.

6. Military Strategies and Fortifications: Both Britain and France were building up their military forces and fortifications in North America and Europe. This arms buildup heightened tensions and made conflict more likely.

7. Indigenous Alliances: Native American tribes played a crucial role in the conflict, as they allied with either the French or the British based on their own interests. Their involvement complicated the dynamics of the war and contributed to the broader struggle for control of North America.

In summary, the Seven Years' War was the result of a combination of colonial ambitions, territorial disputes, complex alliances, economic interests, and pre-existing rivalries, both in Europe and overseas. Its outcome significantly reshaped the global balance of power and had lasting effects on the countries involved.

Query: Was George Washington's attempt to invest Fort Duquesne (today’s Pittsburgh), then, merely a precipitating event to a localized conflict, or did it have wider, global, consequences?

George Washington's attempt to capture Fort Duquesne in 1754 can indeed be viewed as both a precipitating event in a localized conflict and a catalyst for wider, global consequences. Here’s how it fits into both contexts:

Localized Conflict

1. Initial Engagement: Washington's expedition to Fort Duquesne was part of the broader struggle for control of the Ohio River Valley between British and French colonial interests. His forces engaged with French troops in what became known as the Battle of Jumonville Glen, which resulted in the death of a French leader. This incident escalated tensions significantly and is often seen as the spark that ignited the French and Indian War, the North American theater of the Seven Years' War.

2. Indigenous Alliances: Washington’s actions and the subsequent military engagements involved various Native American tribes, who were also vying for control of their lands and alliances. The conflict in the Ohio Valley was deeply rooted in local dynamics, making Washington’s attempt a significant event in a localized struggle.

Wider Global Consequences

1. Escalation of Conflict: Washington's actions contributed to a broader conflict between Britain and France, which soon expanded beyond North America. Following the skirmishes in the Ohio Valley, Britain and France began to mobilize for a larger war, leading to the formal declaration of the Seven Years’ War in 1756.

2. Shift in Power Dynamics: The war had significant global implications, leading to a major realignment of power. The British victory in the war resulted in the acquisition of Canada and significant territories in North America and India, altering the colonial landscape. This shift laid the groundwork for British dominance in the 18th century.

3. Impact on Colonial Relations: The war also had lasting effects on British-colonial relations. The financial burden of the war led Britain to impose new taxes on the American colonies, contributing to colonial discontent and eventually the American Revolution.

4. International Alliances: The outcomes of the Seven Years' War influenced future international relations and alliances. The war set the stage for subsequent conflicts and realignments in Europe, such as the rise of Prussia as a major power and the weakening of France.

In summary, while Washington's attempt to capture Fort Duquesne was a localized military engagement, it was a crucial precursor that set off a chain of events leading to the Seven Years' War, which had profound global consequences. The conflict reshaped colonial territories, altered power dynamics, and influenced future relations among European powers and their colonies.

Query: Would you see the Seven Years War and the Napoleonic Wars as interrelated, analogous to the interrelationship between WWI and WWII?

Yes, the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars can be seen as interrelated in certain ways, similar to the relationship between World War I and World War II. Here are some key points of interconnection between these two sets of conflicts:

Continuity of Rivalries and Alliances

1. Legacy of Conflict: The Seven Years' War (1756-1763) established a framework of rivalries and alliances in Europe that persisted into the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815). The outcomes of the Seven Years' War contributed to the rise of tensions among European powers, particularly between Britain, France, and Prussia.

2. Shifting Alliances: Just as WWI and WWII featured shifting alliances and grievances from the previous war, the alliances and enmities formed during the Seven Years' War influenced the coalitions that emerged during the Napoleonic Wars.

Colonial and Global Context

1. Colonial Competition: The Seven Years' War was significantly about colonial competition, particularly between Britain and France, which set the stage for continued global rivalries. The Napoleonic Wars also had substantial colonial dimensions, as Britain and France fought not only in Europe but also for dominance in the Americas, the Caribbean, and Asia.

2. Global Conflict: Both wars can be characterized as global conflicts. The Seven Years' War was often described as the first "world war," while the Napoleonic Wars involved many of the same powers and extended their conflicts across Europe and beyond.

Economic Factors

1. Financial Strain: The Seven Years' War significantly strained the finances of several European powers, particularly France. This financial strain contributed to social unrest and the conditions that led to the French Revolution, which played a crucial role in the rise of Napoleon and the subsequent Napoleonic Wars.

2. Military Expansion: The economic consequences of the Seven Years' War led to military expansions and reforms in several countries, setting the stage for the large-scale military engagements of the Napoleonic Wars.

Ideological Underpinnings

1. Rise of Nationalism: The Seven Years' War and its aftermath contributed to a growing sense of nationalism in various European countries, which became a significant force during the Napoleonic Wars. The desire for national identity and self-determination became pronounced during this later conflict.

2. Revolutionary Ideas: The ideological shifts that occurred during and after the Seven Years' War, particularly in France, set the stage for revolutionary ideas that fueled the Napoleonic Wars. The French Revolution fundamentally changed the political landscape of Europe and influenced the nature of the subsequent conflicts.

Conclusion: While the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars occurred in different contexts and had distinct immediate causes, they are interrelated in terms of the geopolitical landscape, the legacies of conflict, and the evolution of national and colonial rivalries. Like World War I and World War II, these two sets of wars can be seen as part of a continuum of conflict that shaped the history of Europe and the world.

Query: Please elaborate on how these periods of conflict affected or empowered the growth of the USA.

The Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars had significant implications for the growth and development of the United States, both directly and indirectly. Here’s how each conflict impacted the United States during its formative years:

Seven Years' War (1756-1763)

1. Territorial Expansion: The conclusion of the Seven Years' War, particularly the Treaty of Paris in 1763, resulted in Britain gaining control of Canada and significant territories east of the Mississippi River. This expansion opened up new lands for British settlers, fostering westward migration and exploration.

2. Increased Tensions with Native Americans: Following the war, British expansion into the newly acquired territories led to increased tensions with Native American tribes. The Proclamation of 1763, which restricted colonial expansion west of the Appalachian Mountains, was an attempt by Britain to manage these tensions but frustrated many colonists who desired land for settlement.

3. Financial Strain and Colonial Discontent: The financial burdens of the war led Britain to impose new taxes on its American colonies (e.g., the Stamp Act and Townshend Acts) to recoup war expenses. This taxation without representation fueled colonial discontent and contributed to the growing desire for independence, setting the stage for the American Revolution.

4. Military Experience: The war provided valuable military experience to American leaders, including George Washington, who emerged as a prominent figure during the conflict. This experience would be instrumental in the American Revolutionary War.

Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815)

1. Shifts in Colonial Relations: The Napoleonic Wars affected the balance of power in Europe and the Americas. The conflict distracted European powers from their colonial pursuits, providing opportunities for the United States to expand its influence and territory.

2. Louisiana Purchase: In 1803, during the Napoleonic Wars, the U.S. acquired the vast territory of Louisiana from France for $15 million. This purchase doubled the size of the United States and provided land for future expansion westward, facilitating settlement and economic growth.

3. Impressment and Maritime Rights: The Napoleonic Wars led to increased tensions between the U.S. and Britain, particularly regarding maritime rights and impressment of American sailors into the British Navy. These issues contributed to the War of 1812, which further defined U.S. sovereignty and national identity.

4. Economic Growth and Development: The wars in Europe created disruptions in trade, which encouraged American manufacturing and economic self-sufficiency. This period saw the growth of American industry and infrastructure, laying the groundwork for the country's economic development in the years to come.

5. Nationalism and Identity: The challenges posed by the Napoleonic Wars and the War of 1812 fostered a sense of nationalism in the United States. The successful defense against British forces solidified a sense of American identity and unity, which was crucial in the early years of the republic.

Conclusion: Both the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars played significant roles in shaping the trajectory of the United States. The outcomes of these conflicts facilitated territorial expansion, influenced colonial relations, provided military experience, and fostered a sense of national identity. Ultimately, they contributed to the evolution of the U.S. from a collection of British colonies into an independent and expanding nation in the early 19th century.

Query: How did malaria and other diseases affecting French troops in Haiti following the Haitian rebellion in 1803 affect the USA?

The impact of malaria and other diseases on French troops in Haiti following the Haitian Revolution (1791-1804) had significant implications for the United States, particularly in the context of the Louisiana Purchase and the broader geopolitical landscape of the early 19th century. Here are some key points outlining how these health crises affected the U.S.:

1. Haitian Revolution and French Withdrawal: Decline of French Power: The Haitian Revolution led to the establishment of Haiti as the first independent black republic in 1804, and it was a significant blow to French colonial ambitions in the Americas. The inability to maintain control over such a vital colony weakened France’s presence in the Caribbean and influenced its capacity to project power in North America.

2. Louisiana Purchase (1803):

   a. Opportunity for Negotiation: The challenges faced by France in Haiti, including the high mortality rates among troops due to malaria and other diseases, diminished Napoleon Bonaparte's ability to sustain a colonial empire in the Americas. Consequently, he decided to sell the Louisiana territory to the United States in 1803. This acquisition doubled the size of the U.S. and was crucial for westward expansion.

   b. Strategic Shift: The loss of Haiti and the sale of Louisiana marked a shift in American territorial dynamics. The U.S. gained vast resources and land that would be critical for agriculture, settlement, and economic development.

3. Impact on U.S. Slavery and Race Relations:

   a. Fear of Slave Rebellions: The success of the Haitian Revolution instilled fear in slaveholding states in the U.S. about potential slave uprisings. This fear led to increased repression of enslaved people and heightened racial tensions, as slaveholders sought to prevent similar revolts on their own plantations.

   b. Influence on Abolitionist Sentiment: The Haitian Revolution also inspired some abolitionist movements and discussions about freedom and rights in the U.S. While it caused fear among slaveholders, it also demonstrated the potential for enslaved people to fight for their freedom, influencing the broader discourse around slavery in America.

4. Geopolitical Implications

   a. Shift in Colonial Ambitions: The weakening of French power in the Caribbean allowed the U.S. to assert itself more confidently in the region. The U.S. began to expand its influence in the Caribbean and Latin America, leading to future interventions and territorial acquisitions.

   b. U.S.-French Relations: The loss of Haiti and the subsequent sale of Louisiana affected U.S.-French relations. While the purchase improved relations temporarily, the broader context of European conflicts would later complicate these dynamics.

5. Public Health Awareness: Understanding of Disease: The challenges posed by malaria and other diseases highlighted the difficulties of maintaining a military presence in tropical regions. This had implications for American military and diplomatic strategies in the Caribbean and South America in subsequent years, as the U.S. would face similar challenges in its own territorial expansion and military engagements.

Conclusion: The impact of diseases like malaria on French troops in Haiti following the Haitian Revolution significantly influenced the trajectory of the United States. The weakening of French colonial power led to the Louisiana Purchase, which facilitated westward expansion and shaped the future of the nation. Additionally, the revolution and its aftermath affected U.S. attitudes toward slavery, race relations, and geopolitical ambitions in the Americas. The interplay of these factors contributed to the evolving identity and destiny of the United States in the early 19th century.

Query: Last question, if I may. Given the answers you've provided above, on the Seven years war, it's relationship to the Napoleonic Wars, the founding and development of the USA, would you say that the Wars of the 18th and 19th century support or refute Carl von Clausewitz's ideas expressed in On War?

Carl von Clausewitz's On War offers a comprehensive analysis of the nature and theory of war, emphasizing the interplay of political objectives, military strategy, and the chaotic nature of warfare. When considering the Wars of the 18th and 19th centuries, including the Seven Years' War, the Napoleonic Wars, and their implications on the development of the United States, several aspects of Clausewitz's ideas can be both supported and, in some cases, challenged. Here’s how they relate:

Supporting Clausewitz's Ideas

1. War as an Extension of Politics: Clausewitz famously stated that "war is merely the continuation of policy by other means." The wars of this period clearly illustrate this principle. For example, the Seven Years' War was fought over colonial and territorial conflicts that had significant political implications for European powers. Similarly, the Napoleonic Wars were deeply intertwined with national ambitions and the political landscape of Europe, including the rise of nationalism.

2. The "Fog of War”: Clausewitz discusses the uncertainty and unpredictability inherent in war, often referred to as the "fog of war." The experiences of both the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars, including the challenges faced by commanders and the impact of disease, exemplify this concept. Leaders often had to make decisions based on incomplete information and fluctuating circumstances, which shaped the outcomes of battles and campaigns.

3. The Trinity of War: Clausewitz describes war as a dynamic interplay between three elements: the government (politics), the military (strategy), and the people (passion). The wars of this era illustrate this trinity. For instance, the American Revolution can be seen as a conflict involving all three elements, where the fight for independence was driven by political ideals, military strategies, and the passions of the American populace.¹

4. Total War and Limited War: The Napoleonic Wars, in particular, reflect Clausewitz's notion of "total war," where the conflicts involved entire nations and aimed at achieving total victory. The mobilization of resources, the involvement of civilian populations, and the extensive military campaigns all align with Clausewitz’s theories on the nature of modern warfare.

Challenging or Nuancing Clausewitz's Ideas

1. Non-State Actors and Revolutions: While Clausewitz focuses on state-centric warfare, the Haitian Revolution and its implications challenge this perspective. The success of a non-state actor (the enslaved population of Haiti) against a colonial power illustrates that wars can be driven by revolutionary movements and ideologies that do not fit neatly into Clausewitz's framework of state interests.

2. Asymmetrical Warfare: The conflicts of the 18th and 19th centuries, particularly the American War of Independence, involved asymmetrical warfare, where a smaller, less formally organized force (the American colonists) successfully challenged a powerful empire (Britain). This raises questions about Clausewitz’s emphasis on traditional military structures and strategies, as unconventional tactics were crucial to American success.

3. Influence of Disease and Logistics: Clausewitz discusses the importance of logistics and the economy of war, but the significant impact of disease (e.g., malaria in Haiti) on military operations highlights a factor that can severely affect outcomes in ways that strategic thinking alone cannot predict. The role of health and environmental conditions in warfare is an important consideration that is less emphasized in Clausewitz's work.

Conclusion: Overall, the Wars of the 18th and 19th centuries largely support many of Clausewitz's ideas regarding the nature of war, particularly the relationship between war and politics, the unpredictability of conflict, and the dynamics of total war. However, they also present nuances and challenges to his theories, particularly concerning non-state actors, asymmetrical warfare, and the role of disease and logistics. Clausewitz’s framework remains a valuable lens through which to analyze these conflicts, but it must be applied flexibly to account for the complexities of historical realities.

Wrapping up, I found the whole exercise interesting and illuminating, both is the subject matter as well as Chat Box’s responses. For one, I hadn’t previously made the connection between the War of Austrian Succession and the Seven Years War, although, thinking back it seems quite apparent.

Obviously, AI in its various manifestations and applications does a lot more than discuss history with nerds. The full implications are far from clear. I don’t think its SkyNet, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be dangerous in the wrong hands, or on its own. We’ve already seen that AI can empower deceptive videos, perhaps create fake realities, with significant implications for politics, commerce, peace or war.

AI can also empower disease diagnosis and targeted cures in ways previously unavailable. AI powered algorithms have already removed much of the potential for irrational panic or enthusiasm to sway financial markets. AI may be able to provide war-fighters better decision algorithms regarding targeting and accuracy, sparing innocent lives. It may improve weather warning, drought and famine warning, and predicting climate shifts and long term effects. And, much, much more.

It’s a whole new world ahead, as its always been.

1. While the Chat Box doesn’t address it, the Trinity of War concept also relates very strongly to the growth of opposition in England to the Parliament’s and the Crown’s War on the American colonists, which led in large part to England abandoning the campaign after their defeat at Yorktown by combined American and French forces.